Brexit-Arybrusxit
TO COMPLETE ARTICLE OR BREXIT: VISIT WIKIPEDIA
TO COMPLETE 2022 RUSSIAN INVASION TO UKRAINE ARTICLE: VISIT WIKIPEDIA
Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of "British exit") was the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) at 23:00 GMT on 31 January 2020 (00:00 CET).[note 1] The UK is the only sovereign country to have left the EU.[note 2] The UK had been a member state of the EU and its predecessor the European Communities (EC) since 1 January 1973. Following Brexit, EU law and the Court of Justice of the European Union no longer have primacy over British laws, except in select areas in relation to Northern Ireland.[2] The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 retains relevant EU law as domestic law, which the UK can now amend or repeal. Under the terms of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, Northern Ireland continues to participate in the European Single Market in relation to goods, and to be a de facto member of the EU Customs Union.[3][4]
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| External Coup to 1-5 Country | External Coup to 3-9 States | ||||||
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| Strength estimates are as of the start of the Riot. | |||||||
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| All Santriwati Injured and dies in Jombang Regency because a Riot of Jombang Pesantren's Location. | |||||||
The EU and its institutions have developed gradually since their establishment and during the 47 years of British membership, and grew to be of significant economic and political importance to the UK. Throughout the period of British membership, Eurosceptic groups had existed, opposing aspects of the EU and its predecessors. Labour prime minister Harold Wilson's pro-EC government held a referendum on continued EC membership in 1975, in which 67.2 per cent of those voting chose to stay within the bloc, but no further referendums were held during the subsequent process of European integration, aimed at "ever closer union", embodied in the Treaties of Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon. As part of a campaign pledge to win votes from Eurosceptics,[5] Conservative prime minister David Cameron promised to hold a referendum if his government was re-elected. His (pro-EU) government subsequently held a referendum on continued EU membership in 2016, in which voters chose to leave the EU with 51.9 per cent of the vote share. This led to his resignation, his replacement by Theresa May, and four years of negotiations with the EU on the terms of departure and on future relations.
The negotiation process was both politically challenging and deeply divisive within the UK, with one deal rejected by the British parliament, the risk of a departure from the EU without a withdrawal agreement or trade deal (a no-deal Brexit), general elections held in 2017 and 2019, and two new prime ministers in that time, both Conservative. Under Boris Johnson's majority government, the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 but continued to participate in many EU institutions (including the single market and customs union) during a one-year transition period in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship was agreed. Trade deal negotiations continued within days of the scheduled end of the transition period and the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement was signed on 30 December 2020.
The effects of Brexit will in part be determined by the cooperation agreement, which provisionally applied from 1 January 2021, and formally came into force on 1 May 2021.[6] The broad consensus among economists is that it is likely to harm the UK's economy and reduce its real per capita income in the long term, and that the referendum itself damaged the economy.[7][8][9][10][11] It is likely to produce a large decline in immigration from countries in the European Economic Area (EEA) to the UK,[12] and poses challenges for British higher education and academic research.[13]
Russian military buildups (March 2021 – February 2022)
In March and April 2021, Russia began a major military build-up near the Russo-Ukrainian border. A second build-up followed from October 2021 to February 2022, in both Russia and Belarus.[74] Members of the Russian government repeatedly denied having plans to invade or attack Ukraine;[75][76] including government spokesman Dmitry Peskov on 28 November 2021, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on 19 January 2022,[77] Russian ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov on 20 February 2022,[75] and Russian ambassador to the Czech Republic Alexander Zmeevsky on 23 February 2022.[78][79]
Putin's chief national security adviser, Nikolai Patrushev,[80] believed that the West had been in an undeclared war with Russia for years.[81] Russia's updated national security strategy, published in May 2021, said that Russia may use "forceful methods" to "thwart or avert unfriendly actions that threaten the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Russian Federation".[82][83] Sources say the decision to invade Ukraine was made by Putin and a small group of war hawks in Putin's inner circle, including Patrushev and Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.[84]
When in early December 2021 Russia denied plans to invade, the US released intelligence, including satellite photographs of Russian troops and equipment near the Russo-Ukrainian border, that indicated otherwise, and continued to accurately predict invasion events.[85][86] The intelligence also said that the Russians had a list of key sites, and of individuals to be killed or neutralised in the invasion.[85]
Russian accusations and demands
In the months preceding the invasion, Russian officials accused Ukraine of Russophobia, inciting tensions, and repressing Russian speakers in Ukraine. They also made multiple security demands of Ukraine, NATO, and non-NATO allies in the EU. Commentators and Western officials described these as attempts to justify war.[87][88] "Russophobia is a first step towards genocide", Putin said on 9 December 2021.[89][90] Putin's claims about "de-Nazification" have been described as absurd,[91] and Russian claims of genocide were widely rejected as baseless.[92][93][94] Scholars of genocide and Nazism said that Putin's claims were "factually wrong",[95][96][97] and that they actually contribute to incitement to genocide of Ukrainians by accusation in a mirror.[98][99] Both Lavrov and Putin were criticised by US Ambassador Deborah Lipstadt for their weaponisation of nazism and of the Holocaust, which she characterised as racially prejudiced, including Lavrov's claim that Hitler's mother was Jewish. Lipstadt similarly criticised the two Russian leaders for their weaponisation of the term nazism for their own self-interest.[100] Zelenskyy declared that 16 February, a speculated date for the invasion, a "Day of Unity".[101][102]
Putin challenged the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state and claimed[103] that "Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood",[104] incorrectly described it as created by Soviet Russia,[29] and falsely said Ukrainian society and government were dominated by neo-Nazism.[32]
Ukraine, like pro-Russian separatists in Donbas,[105][106][107][108] has a far-right fringe, including the neo-Nazi-linked Azov Battalion and Right Sector,[112] but experts have described Putin's rhetoric as greatly exaggerating the influence of far-right groups within Ukraine; there is no widespread support for the ideology in the government, military, or electorate.[87][32][113] Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, rebuked Putin's allegations, noting that his grandfather served in the Soviet army fighting Nazis.[114] The US Holocaust Memorial Museum and Yad Vashem condemned this use of Holocaust history and allusion to Nazi ideology in propaganda.[115][116]
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During the second build-up, Russia demanded that the US and NATO enter into a legally binding arrangement preventing Ukraine from ever joining NATO, and remove multinational forces from NATO's Eastern European member states.[118] Russia threatened an unspecified military response if NATO followed an "aggressive line".[119] These demands were widely seen as non-viable; new NATO members in Central and Eastern Europe had joined the alliance because they preferred the safety and economic opportunities offered by NATO and the EU, and their governments sought protection from Russian irredentism.[120] A formal treaty to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO would contravene the treaty's "open door" policy, despite NATO's unenthusiastic response to Ukrainian requests to join.[121]
Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz made efforts to prevent the war in February. Macron met with Putin but failed to convince him not to go forward with the attack. Scholz warned Putin about heavy sanctions that would be imposed should the invasion happen. Scholz also pleaded with Zelenskyy to renounce the aspiration to join NATO and declare neutrality, however Zelenskyy refused
Following a UK-wide referendum on 23 June 2016, in which 51.89 per cent voted in favour of leaving the EU and 48.11 per cent voted to remain a member, Prime Minister David Cameron resigned. On 29 March 2017, the new British government led by Theresa May formally notified the EU of the country's intention to withdraw, beginning the process of Brexit negotiations. The withdrawal, originally scheduled for 29 March 2019, was delayed by the deadlock in the British parliament after the June 2017 general election, which resulted in a hung parliament in which the Conservatives lost their majority but remained the largest party. This deadlock led to three extensions of the UK's Article 50 process.
The deadlock was resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. In that election, Conservatives who campaigned in support of a "revised" withdrawal agreement led by Boris Johnson won an overall majority of 80 seats. After the December 2019 election, the British parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement with the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act 2020. The UK left the EU at the end of 31 January 2020 CET (11 p.m. GMT). This began a transition period that ended on 31 December 2020 CET (11 p.m. GMT), during which the UK and EU negotiated their future relationship.[14] During the transition, the UK remained subject to EU law and remained part of the European Union Customs Union and the European Single Market. However, it was no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[15][16]
The withdrawal had been advocated by hard Eurosceptics and opposed by pro-Europeanists and soft Eurosceptics, with both sides of the argument spanning the political spectrum. In 1973, the UK joined the European Communities (EC) – principally the European Economic Community (EEC) – and its continued membership was endorsed in the 1975 membership referendum. In the 1970s and 1980s, withdrawal from the EC was advocated mainly by the political left, e.g. in the Labour Party's 1983 election manifesto. The 1992 Maastricht Treaty, which founded the EU, was ratified by the British parliament in 1993 but was not put to a referendum. The Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party led a rebellion over the ratification of the treaty and, with the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and the cross-party People's Pledge campaign, then led a collective campaign, particularly after the Treaty of Lisbon was also ratified by the European Union (Amendment) Act 2008 without being put to a referendum following a previous promise to hold a referendum on ratifying the abandoned European Constitution, which was never held. After promising to hold a second membership referendum if his government was elected, Conservative prime minister David Cameron held this referendum in 2016. Cameron, who had campaigned to remain, resigned after the result and was succeeded by Theresa May.
On 29 March 2017, the British government formally began the withdrawal process by invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union with permission from Parliament. May called a snap general election in June 2017, which resulted in a Conservative minority government supported by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). UK–EU withdrawal negotiations began later that month. The UK negotiated to leave the EU customs union and single market. This resulted in the November 2018 withdrawal agreement, but the British parliament voted against ratifying it three times. The Labour Party wanted any agreement to maintain a customs union, while many Conservatives opposed the agreement's financial settlement, as well as the "Irish backstop" designed to prevent border controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party (SNP), and others sought to reverse Brexit through a proposed second referendum.
On 14 March 2019, the British parliament voted for May to ask the EU to delay Brexit until June, and then later October.[17] Having failed to get her agreement approved, May resigned as Prime Minister in July and was succeeded by Boris Johnson. He sought to replace parts of the agreement and vowed to leave the EU by the new deadline. On 17 October 2019, the British Government and the EU agreed on a revised withdrawal agreement, with new arrangements for Northern Ireland.[18][19] Parliament approved the agreement for further scrutiny, but rejected passing it into law before the 31 October deadline, and forced the government (through the "Benn Act") to ask for a third Brexit delay. An early general election was then held on 12 December. The Conservatives won a large majority in that election, with Johnson declaring that the UK would leave the EU in early 2020.[20] The withdrawal agreement was ratified by the UK on 23 January and by the EU on 30 January; it came into force on 31 January 2020.[21][22][23]
Russia will Banned from UMCC 14 July 2022:
The invasion began at dawn of 24 February,[164] with infantry divisions and armoured and air support in Eastern Ukraine, and dozens of missile attacks across both Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine.[174][175] The first fighting took place in Luhansk Oblast near Milove village on the border with Russia at 3:40 am Kyiv time.[176] The main infantry and tank attacks were launched in four spearhead incursions, creating a northern front launched towards Kyiv, a southern front originating in Crimea, a south-eastern front launched at the cities of Luhansk and Donbas, and an eastern front.[42][43] Dozens of missile strikes across Ukraine reached as far west as Lviv.[177][178] Wagner Group mercenaries and Chechen forces reportedly made several attempts to assassinate Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The Ukrainian government said these efforts were thwarted by anti-war officials in Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), who shared intelligence of the plans.[179]
On 25 March, the Russian Defence Ministry said the "first stage" of what they called the "military operation in Ukraine" was generally complete, that the Ukrainian military forces had suffered serious losses, and the Russian military would now concentrate on the "liberation of Donbas".[180][181] The "first stage" of the invasion was conducted on four fronts[182][183] including one towards western Kyiv from Belarus, conducted by the Russian Eastern Military District, comprising the 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies. A second axis deployed towards eastern Kyiv from Russia by the Central Military District (north-eastern front), comprised the 41st Combined Arms Army and 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army. A third axis deployed towards Kharkiv by the Western Military District (eastern front), with the 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Combined Arms Army. A fourth, southern, front originating in occupied Crimea and Russia's Rostov oblast with an eastern axis towards Odessa and a western area of operations toward Mariupol, by the Southern Military District, including the 58th, 49th, and 8th Combined Arms Army, the latter also commanding the 1st and 2nd Army Corps of the Russian separatist forces in Donbas[184]
By 7 April, Russian troops deployed to the northern front by the Russian Eastern Military District pulled back from the Kyiv offensive, apparently to resupply and then redeploy to the Donbas region to reinforce the renewed invasion of south-eastern Ukraine. The north-eastern front, including the Central Military District, was similarly withdrawn for resupply and redeployment to south-eastern Ukraine.[184][185] By 8 April, General Alexander Dvornikov was placed in charge of military operations during the invasion.[186] On 18 April, retired Lieutenant General Douglas Lute, the former US ambassador to NATO, reported in a PBS NewsHour interview that Russia had repositioned its troops to initiate a new assault on Eastern Ukraine which would be limited to Russia's original deployment of 150,000 to 190,000 troops for the invasion, though the troops were being well supplied from adequate weapon stockpiles in Russia. For Lute, this contrasted sharply with the vast size of the Ukrainian conscription of all-male Ukrainian citizens between 16 and 60 years of age, but without adequate weapons in Ukraine's highly limited stockpiles of weapons.[187] On 26 April, delegates of the US and 40 allied nations met at Ramstein Air Base in Germany to discuss forming a coalition to provide economic support and military supplies and refitting to Ukraine.[188] Following Putin's Victory Day speech in early May, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said no short term resolution to the invasion should be expected.[189]
Russian forces improved their focus on protecting their supply lines by advancing more slowly, and more methodically. They also benefited from centralising command under General Dvornikov.[190] Ukraine's reliance on Western-supplied equipment constrained it, as Western countries feared that Ukraine would use it to strike targets in Russia.[191] Military experts disagree on the future of the conflict; some have suggested trading territory for peace,[192] while others believe that Ukraine can sustain their resistance to the invasion, due to the Russian losses.[193] On 26 May 2022, the Conflict Intelligence Team, citing Russian soldiers, reported that Colonel General Gennady Zhidko had been put in charge of Russian forces during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, replacing Army General Dvornikov.[194][195] By 30 May, disparities between Russian and Ukrainian artillery were apparent. Russian artillery had a longer range, for example.[196] In response to Biden's indication that enhanced artillery would be provided to Ukraine, Putin indicated that Russian would expand its invasion front to include new cities in Ukraine and in apparent retribution ordered a missile strike against Kyiv on 6 June after not directly attacking the city for several weeks.[197] On 10 June 2022, Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence, stated during the Severodonetsk campaign that the frontlines were where the future of the invasion would be decided: "This is an artillery war now, and we are losing in terms of artillery. Everything now depends on what [the west] gives us. Ukraine has one artillery piece to 10 to 15 Russian artillery pieces. Our western partners have given us about 10% of what they have."[198]
On 29 June, Reuters reported that Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, updating U.S. intelligence assessment of the Russian invasion, said that U.S. intelligence agencies agree that the invasion will continue "for an extended period of time... In short, the picture remains pretty grim and Russia's attitude toward the West is hardening."[199] On 5 July, BBC reported that extensive destruction by the Russian invasion would cause immense financial damage to Ukraine's reconstruction economy stating: "Ukraine needs $750bn for a recovery plan and Russian oligarchs should contribute to the cost, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has told a reconstruction conference in Switzerland."[200]
First phase: Invasion of Ukraine (24 February – 7 April)
The invasion began on 24 February, launched out of Belarus to target Kyiv, and from the northeast against the city of Kharkiv. The southeastern front was conducted as two separate spearheads, from Crimea and the southeast against Luhansk and Donetsk.[42][43]
First phase – Northern front
Russian efforts to capture Kyiv included a probative spearhead on 24 February, from Belarus south along the west bank of the Dnipro River, apparently to encircle the city from the west, supported by two separate axes of attack from Russia along the east bank of the Dnipro: the western at Chernihiv, and the eastern at Sumy. These were likely intended to encircle Kyiv from the north-east and east.[175][174]
Russia apparently tried to rapidly seize Kyiv, with Spetsnaz infiltrating into the city supported by airborne operations and a rapid mechanised advance from the north, but was unsuccessful.[201][202][203][204] Russian forces advancing on Kyiv from Belarus gained control of the ghost towns of Chernobyl and Pripyat.[205][206] Russian Airborne Forces attempted to seize two key airfields near Kyiv, launching an airborne assault on Antonov Airport,[207][208] And a similar landing at Vasylkiv, near Vasylkiv Air Base, on 26 February.[209][210]
By early March, Russian advances along the west side of the Dnipro were limited by Ukrainian defences.[175][174] As of 5 March, a large Russian convoy, reportedly 64 kilometres (40 mi) long, had made little progress toward Kyiv.[211] The London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) assessed Russian advances from the north and east as "stalled".[212] Advances from Chernihiv largely halted as a siege began there. Russian forces continued to advance on Kyiv from the northwest, capturing Bucha, Hostomel, and Vorzel by 5 March,[213][214] though Irpin remained contested as of 9 March.[215] By 11 March, the lengthy convoy had largely dispersed and taken cover.[216] On 16 March, Ukrainian forces began a counter-offensive to repel Russian forces.[217] Unable to achieve a quick victory in Kyiv, Russian forces switched their strategy to indiscriminate bombing and siege warfare.[218][219]
On 25 March, a Ukrainian counter-offensive retook several towns to the east and west of Kyiv, including Makariv.[220][221] Russian troops in the Bucha area retreated north at the end of March. Ukrainian forces entered the city on 1 April.[222] Ukraine said it had recaptured the entire region around Kyiv, including Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel, and uncovered evidence of war crimes in Bucha.[223] On 6 April, NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said that the Russian "retraction, resupply, and redeployment" of their troops from the Kyiv area should be interpreted as an expansion of Putin's plans for Ukraine, by redeploying and concentrating his forces on Eastern Ukraine.[185] Kyiv was generally left free from attack apart from isolated missile strikes. One did occur while UN Secretary-General António Guterres was visiting Kyiv on 28 April to discuss with Zelenskyy the survivors of the siege of Mariupol.[224]
First phase – North-eastern front
Russian forces advanced into Chernihiv Oblast on 24 February and besieged its administrative capital. The next day Russian forces attacked and captured Konotop.[225][226] A separate advance into Sumy Oblast the same day attacked the city of Sumy, just 35 kilometres (22 mi) from the Russo-Ukrainian border. The advance bogged down in urban fighting, and Ukrainian forces successfully held the city, claiming more than 100 Russian armoured vehicles were destroyed and dozens of soldiers were captured.[227] Russian forces also attacked Okhtyrka, deploying thermobaric weapons.[228]
On 4 March, Frederick Kagan wrote that the Sumy axis was then "the most successful and dangerous Russian avenue of advance on Kyiv", and commented that the geography favoured mechanised advances as the terrain "is flat and sparsely populated, offering few good defensive positions".[174] Travelling along highways, Russian forces reached Brovary, an eastern suburb of Kyiv, on 4 March.[175][174] The Pentagon confirmed on 6 April that the Russian army had left Chernihiv Oblast, but Sumy Oblast remained contested.[229] On 7 April, the governor of Sumy Oblast said that Russian troops were gone, but left behind rigged explosives and other hazards.[230]
First phase – Southern front
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On 24 February, Russian forces took control of the North Crimean Canal, allowing Crimea to obtain water from the Dnieper, cut off since 2014.[231] On 26 February, the siege of Mariupol began as the attack moved east linking to separatist-held Donbas.[228][232] En route, Russian forces entered Berdiansk and captured it.[233] On 1 March, Russian forces attacked Melitopol and nearby cities.[234][235] On 25 February, Russian units from the DPR moves on Mariupol and were defeated near Pavlopil.[236][237][238] By evening, the Russian Navy reportedly began an amphibious assault on the coast of the Sea of Azov 70 kilometres (43 mi) west of Mariupol. A US defence official said that Russian forces might be deploying thousands of marines from this beachhead.[239][240][241]
The Russian 22nd Army Corps approached the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on 26 February[242][243] and besieged Enerhodar to take control of it.[244] A fire began,[245] but the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) subsequently said that essential equipment was undamaged.[246] The nuclear power plant fell under Russian control but despite the fires, it recorded no radiation leaks.[247]
A third Russian attack group from Crimea moved northwest and captured bridges over the Dnieper.[248] On 2 March, Russian troops won a battle at Kherson the first major city to fall to Russian forces in the invasion.[249] Russian troops moved on Mykolaiv and attacked it two days later, but were repelled by Ukrainian forces.[250] Also on 2 March, Ukrainian forces initiated a counter-offensive on Horlivka,[251] controlled by the DPR since 2014.[252]
After renewed missile attacks on 14 March in Mariupol, the Ukrainian government said more than 2,500 had died.[253] By 18 March, Mariupol was completely encircled and fighting reached the city centre, hampering efforts to evacuate civilians.[254] On 20 March, an art school sheltering around 400 people, was destroyed by Russian bombs.[255] The Russians demanded surrender, and the Ukrainians refused.[42][43] On 24 March, Russian forces entered central Mariupol.[256] On 27 March, Ukrainian deputy prime minister Olha Stefanishyna said that "(m)ore than 85 percent of the whole town is destroyed."[257] Putin told Emmanuel Macron in a phone call on 29 March that the bombardment of Mariupol would only end when the Ukrainians surrendered.[258]
On 1 April Russian troops refused safe passage into Mariupol to 50 buses sent by the United Nations to evacuate civilians, as peace talks continued in Istanbul.[259] On 3 April, following the retreat of Russian forces from Kyiv, Russia expanded its attack on Southern Ukraine further west, with bombardment and strikes against Odessa, Mykolaiv, and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.[260][261]
First phase – Eastern front
All UMCC Members was Quick Rising UMCC Flag in UMCC Countries was Started before 2022 Russian invasion to Ukraine started.
In the east, Russian troops attempted to capture Kharkiv, less than 35 kilometres (22 mi) from the Russian border,[262][263] and met strong Ukrainian resistance. On 25 February, the Millerovo air base was attacked by Ukrainian military forces with OTR-21 Tochka missiles, which according to Ukrainian officials, destroyed several Russian Air Force planes and started a fire.[177][178] On 28 February, missile attacks killed several people in Kharkiv.[264] On 1 March, Denis Pushilin, head of the DPR, announced that DPR forces had almost completely surrounded the city of Volnovakha.[265] On 2 March, Russian forces were repelled from Sievierodonetsk during an attack against the city.[266] Izium was reportedly captured by Russian forces on 17 March,[267] although fighting continued.[268]
On 25 March, the Russian defence ministry said it would seek to occupy major cities in Eastern Ukraine.[269] On 31 March, the Ukrainian military confirmed Izium was under Russian control,[270][271] and PBS News reported renewed shelling and missile attacks in Kharkiv, as bad or worse than before, as peace talks with Russia were to resume in Istanbul.[272]
Amid the heightened Russian shelling of Kharkiv on 31 March, Russia reported a helicopter strike against an oil supply depot approximately 35 kilometres (22 mi) north of the border in Belgorod, and accused Ukraine of the attack.[273] Ukraine denied responsibility.[274] By 7 April, the renewed massing of Russian invasion troops and tank divisions around the towns of Izium, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk prompted Ukrainian government officials to advise the remaining residents near the eastern border of Ukraine to evacuate to western Ukraine within 2–3 days, given the absence of arms and munitions previously promised to Ukraine by then.[275]
Second phase: South-eastern offensive (8 April–present)
On 8 April, the Russian ministry announced that all troops and divisions in south-eastern Ukraine would unite under General Aleksandr Dvornikov, who was placed in charge of combined military operations, including the units redeployed from the northern front and north-eastern fronts.[186] By 17 April, Russian progress on the south-eastern front appeared to be impeded by troops continuing to hold out in an abandoned steel mill in Mariupol and refusing to surrender.[276] On 19 April, The New York Times confirmed that Russia had launched a renewed invasion front referred to as an "eastern assault" across a 300-mile (480 km) front extending from Kharkiv to Donetsk and Luhansk, with simultaneous missile attacks again directed at Kyiv in the north and Lviv in Western Ukraine.[277] As of 30 April, a NATO official described Russian advances as "uneven" and "minor".[278] An anonymous US Defence Official called the Russian offensive: "very tepid", "minimal at best" and "anaemic".[279] On 26 May 2022, the Conflict Intelligence Team, citing Russian soldiers, reported that Colonel General Gennady Zhidko had been put in charge of Russian forces during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, replacing Army General Dvornikov.[194][195] In June 2022 the chief spokesman for the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation Igor Konashenkov revealed that Russian troops are divided between the Army Groups "Center" commanded by Colonel General Aleksander Lapin and "South" commanded by Army General Sergey Surovikin.[280]
Second phase – Donbas front; Fall of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk
The UMSU Force go securing Ukraine because A Russian missile attack on Kramatorsk railway station in the city of Kramatorsk took place on 8 April, reportedly killing at least 52[281] and injuring 87 to 300.[282] On 11 April, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine expected a major new Russian offensive in the east.[283] American officials said that Russia had withdrawn or been repulsed elsewhere in Ukraine, and therefore was preparing a retraction, resupply, and redeployment of infantry and tank divisions to the south-eastern Ukraine front.[284][285] Military satellites photographed extensive Russian convoys of infantry and mechanised units deploying south from Kharkiv to Izium on 11 April, apparently part of the planned Russian redeployment of its north-eastern troops to the south-eastern front of the invasion.[286]
On 14 April, Ukrainian troops reportedly blew up a bridge between Kharkiv and Izium used by Russian forces to redeploy troops to Izium, impeding the Russian convoy.[287] On 18 April, with Mariupol almost entirely overtaken by Russian forces, the Ukrainian government announced that the second phase of the reinforced invasion of the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions had intensified with expanded invasion forces occupying of the Donbas.[288] On 5 May, David Axe writing for Forbes stated that the Ukrainian army had concentrated its 4th and 17th Tank Brigades and the 95th Air Assault Brigade around Izium for possible rearguard action against the deployed Russian troops in the area; Axe added that the other major concentration of Ukraine's forces around Kharkiv included the 92nd and 93rd Mechanized Brigades which could similarly be deployed for rearguard action against Russian troops around Kharkiv or link up with Ukrainian troops contemporaneously being deployed around Izium.[289]
On 13 May, BBC reported that Russian troops in Kharkiv were being retracted and redeployed to other fronts in Ukraine following the advances of Ukrainian troops into surrounding cities and Kharkiv itself, which included the destruction of strategic pontoon bridges built by Russian troops to cross over the Seversky Donets river and previously used for rapid tank deployment in the region.[290] On 22 May, the BBC reported that after the fall of Mariupol, Russia had intensified offensives in Luhansk and Donetsk while concentrating missile attacks and intense artillery fire on Sievierodonetsk, the largest city under Ukrainian control in Luhansk province.[291] On 23 May, Russian forces were reported entering the city of Lyman, fully capturing the city by 26 May.[292][293] Ukrainian forces were reported leaving Sviatohirsk.[294] By 24 May, Russian forces captured the city of Svitlodarsk.[295] On 30 May, Reuters reported that Russian troops had breached the outskirts of Sievierodonetsk.[296] By 2 June, The Washington Post reported that Sievierodonetsk was on the brink of capitulation to Russian occupation with over 80 per cent of the city in the hands of Russian troops.[297] On 3 June, Ukrainian forces reportedly began a counter-attack in Sievierodonetsk. By 4 June, Ukrainian government sources claimed 20% or more of the city had been recaptured.[298] However, on 5 June Ukrainian governor of Luhansk Serhiy Haidai said Dvornikov was still in command and had been given until 10 June by his superiors to complete the reduction of Severodonetsk.[299]
On 12 June it was reported by the BBC that 800 Ukrainian citizens and 300–400 soldiers were besieged at the Azot chemical factory in Severodonetsk, with dwindling arms supplies, negotiating for safe conduct out of the city.[300] With the Ukrainian defences of Severodonetsk faultering, Russian invasion troops began intensifying their attack upon the neighbouring city of Lysychansk as their next target city in the invasion.[301] On 20 June it was reported that Russian troops continued to tighten their grip on Severodonetsk by capturing surrounding villages and hamlets surrounding the city, most recently the village of Metelkine.[302] On 24 June, CNN reported that, amid continuing scorched-earth tactics being applied by advancing Russian troops, Ukraine's armed forces were ordered to evacuate the city; they'd leave several hundred civilians seeking refuge in the Azot chemical plant in Severodenetsk, which has been compared to the civilian refugees left at the Azovstal steel works in Mariupol during May.[303] On 3 July, CBS announced that the Russian defense ministry claimed that the city of Lysychansk had been captured and occupied by Russian forces.[304] On 4 July, The Guardian reported that after the fall of the Luhansk oblast, that Russian invasion troops would continue their invasion into the adjacent Donetsk oblast to attack the cities of Sloviansk and Bakhmut.[305]
Second phase – Mykolaiv–Odessa front
UMCC Said: Missile attacks and bombardment of the key cities of Mykolaiv and Odessa continued as the second phase of the invasion began.[277] On 22 April, Russia's Brigadier General Rustam Minnekayev in a defence ministry meeting said that Russia planned to extend its Mykolayiv–Odessa front after the siege of Mariupol further west to include the breakaway region of Transnistria on the Ukrainian border with Moldova.[306][307] The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine described this intention as imperialism, saying that it contradicted previous Russian claims that it did not have territorial ambitions in Ukraine and that the statement was an admission that "the goal of the 'second phase' of the war is not victory over the mythical Nazis, but simply the occupation of eastern and southern Ukraine".[306] Georgi Gotev, writing for Reuters on 22 April, noted that occupying Ukraine from Odessa to Transnistria would transform it into a landlocked nation without any practical access to the Black Sea.[308] On 24 April, Russia resumed its missile strikes on Odessa, destroying military facilities and causing two dozen civilian casualties.[309]
On 27 April, Ukrainian sources indicated that explosions had destroyed two Russian broadcast towers in Transnistria, primarily used to rebroadcast Russian television programming.[310] At the end of April, Russia renewed missile attacks on runways in Odessa, destroying some of them.[311] During the week of 10 May, Ukrainian troops began to take military action to dislodge Russian forces installing themselves on Snake Island in the Black Sea approximately 200 kilometres (120 mi) from Odessa.[312] On 30 June 2022, Russia announced that it had withdrawn troops from the island after objectives were completed.[313][314]
Second phase – Dnipro–Zaporizhzhia front
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Russian forces continued to fire missiles and drop bombs on the key cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia.[277] On 10 April, Russian missiles destroyed the Dnipro International Airport.[315][316] On 2 May the UN reportedly evacuated about 100 survivors from the siege at Mariupol with the cooperation of Russian troops, to the village of Bezimenne near Donetsk, from whence they were to move to Zaporizhzhia.[317] On 28 June, Reuters reported that a Russian missile attack was launched upon the city of Kremenchuk north-west or Zaporizhizhia detonating in a public mall and causing at least 18 deaths while drawing condemnation from France's Emmanuel Macron, among other world leaders, who spoke of it as being a "war crime".[318]
Second phase – Fall of Mariupol
On 13 April, Russian forces intensified their attack on the Azovstal iron and steel works in Mariupol, and the Ukrainian defence forces that remained there.[319] By 17 April, Russian forces had surrounded the factory. Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shmyhal said that the Ukrainian soldiers had vowed to ignore the renewed ultimatum to surrender and to fight to the last soul.[320] On 20 April, Putin said that the siege of Mariupol could be considered tactically complete, since the 500 Ukrainian troops entrenched in bunkers within the Azovstal iron works and estimated 1,000 Ukrainian civilians were completely sealed off from any type of relief in their siege.[321]
After consecutive meetings with Putin and Zelenskyy, UN Secretary-General Guterres on 28 April said he would attempt to organise an emergency evacuation of survivors in Azovstal in accordance with assurances he had received from Putin on his visit to the Kremlin.[322] On 30 April, Russian troops allowed civilians to leave under UN protection.[323] By 3 May, after allowing approximately 100 Ukrainian civilians to depart from the Azovstal steel factory, Russian troops renewed non-stop bombardment of the steel factory.[324] On 6 May, The Telegraph reported that Russia had used thermobaric bombs against the remaining Ukrainian soldiers, who had lost contact with the Kyiv government; in his last communications, Zelenskyy had authorised the commander of the besieged steel factory to surrender as necessary under the pressure of increased Russian attacks.[325] On 7 May, the Associated Press reported that all civilians were evacuated from the Azovstal steel works at the end of the three-day ceasefire.[326]
UMCC Security Council reports:
After the last civilians evacuated from the Azovstal bunkers, nearly two thousand Ukrainian soldiers remained barricaded there, with 700 injured; they were able to communicate a plea for a military corridor to evacuate, as they expected summary execution if they surrendered to the Russians.[327] Reports of dissent within the Ukrainian troops at Azovstal were reported by Ukrainskaya Pravda on 8 May indicating that the commander of the Ukrainian Marines assigned to defend the Azovstal bunkers made an unauthorised acquisition of tanks, munitions, and personnel, broke out from the position there and fled. The remaining soldiers spoke of a weakened defensive position in Azovstal as a result, which allowed progress to advancing Russian lines of attack.[328] Ilia Somolienko, deputy commander of the remaining Ukrainian troops barricaded at Azovstal, said: "We are basically here dead men. Most of us know this and it's why we fight so fearlessly."[329]
On 16 May, the Ukrainian General staff announced that the Mariupol garrison had "fulfilled its combat mission" and that final evacuations from the Azovstal steel factory had begun. The military said that 264 service members were evacuated to Olenivka under Russian control, while 53 of them who were "seriously injured" had been taken to a hospital in Novoazovsk also controlled by Russian forces.[330][331] Following the evacuation of Ukrainian personnel from Azovstal, Russian and DPR forces fully controlled all areas of Mariupol. The end of the battle also brought an end to the Siege of Mariupol. Russia press secretary Dmitry Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin had guaranteed that the fighters who surrendered would be treated "in accordance with international standards" while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an address that "the work of bringing the boys home continues, and this work needs delicacy — and time". Some prominent Russian lawmakers called on the government to deny prisoner exchanges for members of the Azov Regiment.[332]
Western Ukraine
On 14 March, Russian forces conducted multiple cruise missile attacks on a military training facility in Yavoriv, Lviv Oblast, close to the Polish border. Local governor Maksym Kozytskyy reported that at least 35 people had been killed.[333][334] On 18 March, Russia expanded the attack to Lviv, with Ukrainian military officials saying initial information suggested that the missiles which hit Lviv were likely air-launched cruise missiles originating from warplanes flying over the Black Sea.[335] On 16 May, US defence officials say that in the previous 24 hours Russians fired long range missiles targeting military training facility near Lviv.[336]
Air warfare
On 24 February, Russian forces attacked the Chuhuiv air base,[337] which housed Bayraktar TB2 drones. The attack caused damage to fuel storage areas and infrastructure.[338] The next day, Ukrainian forces attacked the Millerovo air base.[177][178] On 27 February, Russia reportedly fired 9K720 Iskander missiles from Belarus at the civilian Zhytomyr Airport.[339][340] Many Ukrainian air defence facilities were destroyed or damaged in the first days of the invasion by Russian air strikes.[341] In the opening days of the conflict, Russia fired many cruise and ballistic missiles at the principal Ukrainian ground-based early warning radars, thereby blinding the Ukrainian Air Force to their air activity. Additionally, craters in the operating surfaces at the major Ukrainian air bases hindered Ukrainian aircraft movements, and several Ukrainian long-range S-300P surface-to-air missile batteries were destroyed.[342]
On 1 March, Russia and the US established a deconfliction line to avoid any misunderstanding that could cause an unintentional escalation.[343]
Russia lost at least ten aircraft on 5 March.[344] On 6 March, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that 88 Russian aircraft had been destroyed since the war began.[345] However, an anonymous senior US defence official told Reuters on 7 March that Russia still had the "vast majority" of its fighter jets and helicopters that had been amassed near Ukraine available to fly.[346] After the first month of the invasion, Justin Bronk, a British military observer, counted the Russian aircraft losses at 15 fixed-wing aircraft and 35 helicopters, but noted that the true total was certainly higher.[347] In contrast, according to the United States, 49 Ukrainian fighter aircraft were lost by 18 March.[348]
On 11 March, US officials said that Russian aircraft launched up to 200 sorties a day, most not entering Ukrainian airspace, instead staying in Russian airspace.[349]
On 13 March, Russian forces conducted multiple cruise missile attacks on a military training facility in Yavoriv, Lviv Oblast, close to the Polish border. Local governor Maksym Kozytskyy reported that at least 35 people had been killed in the attacks.[350][351] The poor performance of the Russian Air Force has been attributed by The Economist to Russia's inability to suppress Ukraine's medium-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries and Russia's lack of precision-guided bombs. Ukrainian mid-range SAM sites force planes to fly low, making them vulnerable to Stinger and other shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles, and lack of training and flight hours for Russian pilots renders them inexperienced for the type of close ground support missions typical of modern air forces.[352] On 5 May, Forbes magazine reported that Russians had continued air attacks and "continue to send Su-24 and Su-25 attack planes on treetop-level bombing runs targeting Ukrainian positions."[353]
By June 2022, Russia had not achieved air superiority, having lost around 165 of its combat aircraft over Ukraine which amounted to approximately 10% of its frontline combat strength. Western commentators noted the qualitative and quantative advantages the Russian air Force had over its Ukrainian counterpart, but attributed the poor performance of Russian aviation to the extensive ground-based anti-aircraft capabilities of the Ukrainians.[354]
Ukraine lies on the Black Sea, which has ocean access only through the Turkish-held Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits. On 28 February, Turkey invoked the 1936 Montreux Convention and sealed off the straits to Russian warships not registered to Black Sea home bases and not returning to their ports of origin. This prevented the passage of four Russian naval vessels through the Turkish Straits in late February.[355][356][357] On 24 February, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine announced that an attack on Snake Island by Russian Navy ships had begun.[358] The guided missile cruiser Moskva and patrol boat Vasily Bykov bombarded the island with their deck guns.[359] When the Russian warship identified itself and instructed the Ukrainian soldiers stationed on the island to surrender, their response was "Russian warship, go fuck yourself!"[360][361] After the bombardment, a detachment of Russian soldiers landed and took control of Snake Island.[362]
Russia stated on 26 February that US drones supplied intelligence to the Ukrainian navy to help target Russian warships in the Black Sea, which the US denied.[363] By 3 March, the Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, the flagship of the Ukrainian navy, was scuttled in Mykolaiv to prevent its capture by Russian forces.[364][365][366][367] On 14 March, the Russian source RT reported that the Russian Armed Forces had captured about a dozen Ukrainian ships in Berdiansk, including the Polnocny-class landing ship Yuri Olefirenko.[368] On 24 March, Ukrainian officials said that a Russian landing ship docked in Berdiansk – initially reported to be the Orsk and then its sister ship, the Saratov – was destroyed by a Ukrainian rocket attack.[369][221][233]
In March 2022, the UN International Maritime Organization (IMO) and UMCC Security Council (UMSU) sought to create a safe sea corridor for commercial vessels to leave Ukrainian ports.[370] On 27 March, Russia established a sea corridor 80 miles (130 km) long and 3 miles (4.8 km) wide through its Maritime Exclusion Zone, for the transit of merchant vessels from the edge of Ukrainian territorial waters south-east of Odesa.[371][372] Ukraine closed its ports at MARSEC level 3, with sea mines laid in port approaches, until the end to hostilities.[373]
The Russian cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, was, according to Ukrainian sources and a US senior official,[374] hit on 13 April by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles, setting the ship on fire. The Russian Defence Ministry confirmed the warship had suffered serious damage due to a munition explosion caused by a fire, and said that its entire crew had been evacuated.[375] The Pentagon spokesman John Kirby reported on 14 April that satellite images showed that the Russian warship had suffered a sizeable explosion onboard but was heading to the east for expected repairs and refitting in Sevastopol.[376] Later on the same day, the Russian Ministry of Defence stated that Moskva had sunk while under tow in rough weather.[377] On 15 April, Reuters reported that Russia launched an apparent retaliatory missile strike against the missile factory Luch Design Bureau in Kyiv where the Neptune missiles used in the Moskva attack were manufactured and designed.[378]
In early May, Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks on Snake Island. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have repelled these counterattacks. Ukraine released footage of a Russian Serna-class landing craft located in the Black Sea being destroyed near Snake Island by a Ukrainian drone.[379][380] The same day, a pair of Ukrainian Su-27s conducted a high-speed, low level bombing run on Russian-occupied Snake Island; the attack was captured on film by a Baykar Bayraktar TB2 drone.[381]
On 1 June, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asserted that Ukraine's policy of mining its own harbours to impede Russia maritime aggression had contributed to the food export crisis, stating that: "If Kyiv solves the problem of demining ports, the Russian Navy will ensure the unimpeded passage of ships with grain to the Mediterranean Sea."[382] On 30 June 2022, Russia announced that it had withdrawn troops from the island in a "gesture of goodwill".[313] The withdrawal was later officially confirmed by Ukraine.[383]
Withdrawal from the European Union is governed by Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. It was originally drafted by Lord Kerr of Kinlochard,[94] and introduced by the Treaty of Lisbon which entered into force in 2009.[95] The article states that any member state can withdraw "in accordance with its own constitutional requirements" by notifying the European Council of its intention to do so.[96] The notification triggers a two-year negotiation period, in which the EU must "negotiate and conclude an agreement with [the leaving] State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the [European] Union".[97] If no agreement is reached within the two years, the membership ends without an agreement, unless an extension is unanimously agreed among all EU states, including the withdrawing state.[97] On the EU side, the agreement needs to be ratified by qualified majority in the European Council, and by the European Parliament.[97]
Invocation of Article 50[edit]
The 2015 Referendum Act did not expressly require Article 50 to be invoked,[97] but prior to the referendum, the British government said it would respect the result.[98] When Cameron resigned following the referendum, he said that it would be for the incoming prime minister to invoke Article 50.[99][100] The new prime minister, Theresa May, said she would wait until 2017 to invoke the article, in order to prepare for the negotiations.[101] In October 2016, she said Britain would trigger Article 50 in March 2017,[102] and in December she gained the support of MP's for her timetable.[103]
In January 2017, the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom ruled in the Miller case that government could only invoke Article 50 if authorised by an act of parliament to do so.[104] The government subsequently introduced a bill for that purpose, and it was passed into law on 16 March as the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017.[105] On 29 March, Theresa May triggered Article 50 when Tim Barrow, the British ambassador to the EU, delivered the invocation letter to European Council President Donald Tusk. This made 29 March 2019 the expected date that UK would leave EU.[106][107]
2017 UK general election[edit]
In April 2017, Theresa May called a snap general election, held on 8 June, in an attempt to "strengthen [her] hand" in the negotiations;[108] The Conservative Party, Labour and UKIP made manifesto pledges to implement the referendum, the Labour manifesto differing in its approach to Brexit negotiations, such as unilaterally offering permanent residence to EU immigrants.[109][110][111][112] The Liberal Democrat Party and the Green Party manifestos proposed a policy of remaining in the EU via a second referendum.[113][114][115] The Scottish National Party (SNP) manifesto proposed a policy of waiting for the outcome of the Brexit negotiations and then holding a referendum on Scottish independence.[116][117]
The result produced an unexpected hung parliament, the governing Conservatives gained votes (but nevertheless lost seats and their majority in the House of Commons) and remained the largest party. Labour gained significantly on votes and seats, retaining its position as the second-largest party. The Liberal Democrats gained six seats despite a slight decrease in vote share compared with 2015. The Green Party kept its single MP while also losing national vote share. Losing votes and seats were the SNP, which lost 21 MPs, and UKIP, which suffered a −10.8% swing and lost its only MP. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Féin also made gains in votes and seats.[118]
On 26 June 2017, Conservatives and the DUP reached a confidence and supply agreement whereby the DUP would back the Conservatives in key votes in the House of Commons over the course of the parliament. The agreement included additional funding of £1 billion for Northern Ireland, highlighted mutual support for Brexit and national security, expressed commitment to the Good Friday Agreement, and indicated that policies such as the state pension triple lock and Winter Fuel Payments would be maintained.[119][120]
UK–EU negotiations in 2017 and 2018[edit]
Prior to the negotiations, May said that the British government would not seek permanent single market membership, would end ECJ jurisdiction, seek a new trade agreement, end free movement of people and maintain the Common Travel Area with Ireland.[121] The EU had adopted its negotiating directives in May,[122] and appointed Michel Barnier as Chief Negotiator.[123] The EU wished to perform the negotiations in two phases: first the UK would agree to a financial commitment and to lifelong benefits for EU citizens in Britain, and then negotiations on a future relationship could begin.[124] In the first phase, the member states would demand that the UK pay a "divorce bill", initially estimated as amounting to £52 billion.[125] EU negotiators said that an agreement must be reached between UK and the EU by October 2018.[126]
Negotiations commenced on 19 June 2017.[123] Negotiating groups were established for three topics: the rights of EU citizens living in Britain and vice versa; Britain's outstanding financial obligations to the EU; and the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.[127][128][129] In December 2017, a partial agreement was reached. It ensured that there would be no hard border in Ireland, protected the rights of UK citizens in the EU and of EU citizens in Britain, and estimated the financial settlement to be £35–39 billion.[130] May stressed that "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed".[131] Following this partial agreement, EU leaders agreed to move on to the second phase in the negotiations: discussion of the future relationship, a transition period and a possible trade deal.[132]
In March 2018, a 21-month transition period and the terms for it were provisionally agreed.[133] In June 2018, Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said that there had been little progress on the Irish border question—on which the EU proposed a backstop, to come into effect if no overall trade deal had been reached by the end of the transition period—and that it was unlikely that there would be a solution before October, when the whole deal was to be agreed.[134] In July 2018, the British government published the Chequers plan, containing its aims for the future relationship that was to be determined in the negotiations. The plan sought to keep British access to the single market for goods, but not necessarily for services, while allowing for an independent trade policy.[135] The plan caused cabinet resignations, including those of Brexit Secretary David Davis[136] and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.[137]
May's agreement and failed ratification[edit]
On 13 November 2018, UK and EU negotiators agreed the text of a draft withdrawal agreement,[138] and May secured her Cabinet's backing of the deal the following day,[139] though Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned over "fatal flaws" in the agreement.[140] It was expected that ratification in the British parliament would be difficult.[141][142][143] On 25 November, all 27 leaders of the remaining EU countries endorsed the agreement.[141][142]
On 10 December 2018, the Prime Minister postponed the vote in the House of Commons on her Brexit deal. This came minutes after the Prime Minister's Office confirmed the vote would be going ahead.[144] Faced with the prospect of a defeat in the House of Commons, this option gave May more time to negotiate with Conservative backbenchers and the EU, even though they had ruled out further discussions.[145] The decision was met with calls from many Welsh Labour MPs for a motion of no confidence in the Government.[146]
Also on 10 December 2018, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled that the UK could unilaterally revoke its notification of withdrawal, as long as it was still a member and had not agreed a withdrawal agreement. The decision to do so should be "unequivocal and unconditional" and "follow a democratic process".[147] If the British revoked their notification, they would remain a member of the EU under their current membership terms. The case was launched by Scottish politicians, and referred to the ECJ by the Scottish Court of Session.[148]
The European Research Group (ERG), a research support group of Eurosceptic Conservative MPs, opposed the Prime Minister's proposed Withdrawal Agreement treaty. Its members objected strongly to the Withdrawal Agreement's inclusion of the Irish backstop.[149][150] ERG members also objected to the proposed £39 billion financial settlement with the EU and stated that the agreement would result in the UK's agreement to continuing to follow EU regulations in major policy areas; and to the continuing jurisdiction of the ECJ over interpretation of the agreement and of European law still applicable to the UK.[151][152]
On 15 January 2019, the House of Commons voted 432 to 202 against the deal, which was the largest majority ever against a United Kingdom government.[153][154] Soon after, a motion of no confidence in Her Majesty's Government was tabled by the opposition,[155] which was rejected by 325 votes to 306.[156]
On 24 February, Prime Minister May proposed that the next vote on the withdrawal agreement would be on 12 March 2019, 17 days away from the Brexit date.[157] On 12 March, the proposal was defeated by 391 votes to 242—a loss by 149 votes, down from 230 from when the deal had been proposed in January.[158]
On 18 March 2019, the Speaker informed the House of Commons that a third meaningful vote could be held only on a motion that was significantly different from the previous one, citing parliamentary precedents going back to 1604.[159]
The Withdrawal Agreement was brought back to the House without the attached understandings on 29 March.[160] The Government's motion of support for the Withdrawal Agreement was defeated by 344 votes to 286—a loss by 58 votes, down from 149 when the deal had been proposed on 12 March.[161]
Article 50 extensions and Johnson's agreement[edit]
On 20 March 2019, the Prime Minister wrote to European Council President Tusk requesting that Brexit be postponed until 30 June 2019.[162] On 21 March 2019, May presented her case to a European Council summit meeting in Brussels. After May left the meeting, a discussion amongst the remaining EU leaders resulted in the rejection of 30 June date and offered instead a choice of two new alternative Brexit dates. On 22 March 2019, the extension options were agreed between the British government and the European Council.[163] The first alternative offered was that if MPs rejected May's deal in the next week, Brexit would be due to occur by 12 April 2019, with, or without, a deal—or alternatively another extension be asked for and a commitment to participate in the 2019 European Parliament elections given. The second alternative offered was that if MPs approved May's deal, Brexit would be due to occur on 22 May 2019. The later date was the day before the start of European Parliament elections.[164] After the government deemed unwarranted the concerns over the legality of the proposed change (because it contained two possible exit dates) the previous day,[165] on 27 March 2019 both the Lords (without a vote)[166] and the Commons (by 441 to 105) approved the statutory instrument changing the exit date to 22 May 2019 if a withdrawal deal is approved, or 12 April 2019 if it is not.[167] The amendment was then signed into law at 12:40 p.m. the next day.[163]
Following the failure of the British Parliament to approve the Withdrawal Agreement by 29 March, the UK was required to leave the EU on 12 April 2019. On 10 April 2019, late-night talks in Brussels resulted in a further extension, to 31 October 2019; Theresa May had again requested an extension only until 30 June. Under the terms of this new extension, if the Withdrawal Agreement were to be passed before October, Brexit would occur on the first day of the subsequent month. The UK would then be obligated to hold European Parliament elections in May, or leave the EU on 1 June without a deal.[168][169]
In granting the Article 50 extensions, the EU adopted a stance of refusing to "reopen" (that is, renegotiate) the Withdrawal Agreement.[170] After Boris Johnson became prime minister on 24 July 2019 and met with EU leaders, the EU changed its stance. On 17 October 2019, following "tunnel talks" between UK and EU,[171] a revised withdrawal agreement was agreed on negotiators level, and endorsed by the British government and the EU Commission.[172] The revised deal contained a new Northern Ireland Protocol, as well as technical modifications to related articles.[18] In addition, the Political Declaration was also revised.[173] The revised deal and the political declaration was endorsed by the European Council later that day.[174] To come into effect, it needed to be ratified by the European Parliament and the Parliament of the United Kingdom.[175]
The British Parliament passed the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019, which received Royal Assent on 9 September 2019, obliging the Prime Minister to seek a third extension if no agreement has been reached at the next European Council meeting in October 2019.[176] In order for such an extension to be granted if it is requested by the Prime Minister, it would be necessary for there to be unanimous agreement by all other heads of EU governments.[177] On 28 October 2019, the third extension was agreed to by the EU, with a new withdrawal deadline of 31 January 2020.[178] 'Exit day' in British law was then amended to this new date by statutory instrument on 30 October 2019.[179]
2019 UK general election[edit]
After Johnson was unable to induce Parliament to approve a revised version of the withdrawal agreement by the end of October, he chose to call for a snap election. Due to the fact three motions for an early general election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 failed to achieve the necessary two-thirds super majority for it to pass so instead, in order to circumvent the existing law, the Government introduced a "election bill" which only needed a simple majority of MPs to vote in favour into the House of Commons which was passed by 438–20, setting the election date for Thursday 12 December.[180] Opinion polls up to polling day showed a firm lead for the Conservatives against Labour throughout the campaign.[181]
In the run-up to the general election on 12 December 2019 the Conservative Party pledged to leave the EU with the withdrawal agreement negotiated in October 2019. Labour promised to renegotiate aforementioned deal and hold a referendum, letting voters choose between the renegotiated deal and remain. The Liberal Democrats vowed to revoke Article 50, while the SNP intended to hold a second referendum, however, revoking Article 50 if the alternative was a no-deal exit. The DUP supported Brexit, but would seek to change parts related to Northern Ireland it was dissatisfied with. Plaid Cymru and the Green Party backed a second referendum, believing the UK should stay in the EU. The Brexit Party was the only major party running for election which wanted the UK to leave the EU without a deal.[182]
The election produced a decisive result for Boris Johnson with the Conservatives winning 365 seats (gaining 47 seats) and an overall majority of 80 seats with Labour suffering their worst election defeat since 1935 after losing 60 seats to leave them with 202 seats and only a single seat in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats won just 11 seats with their leader Jo Swinson losing her own seat. The Scottish National Party won 48 seats after gaining 14 seats in Scotland.
The result broke the deadlock in the UK Parliament and ended the possibility of a referendum being held on the withdrawal agreement and ensured that the United Kingdom would leave the European Union on 31 January 2020.
Ratification and departure[edit]
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Subsequently, the government introduced a bill to ratify the withdrawal agreement. It passed its second reading in the House of Commons in a 358–234 vote on 20 December 2019,[183] and became law on 23 January 2020 as the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act 2020.[184]
The withdrawal agreement received the backing of the constitutional committee in the European Parliament on 23 January 2020, setting expectation that the entire parliament would approve it in a later vote.[185][186][187] On the following day, Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel signed the withdrawal agreement in Brussels, and it was sent to London where Boris Johnson signed it.[21] The European Parliament gave its consent to ratification on 29 January by 621 votes to 49.[188][22] Immediately after voting approval, members of the European Parliament joined hands and sang Auld Lang Syne.[189] The Council of the European Union concluded EU ratification the following day.[190]
On 31 January 2020 at 11 p.m. GMT, the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union ended 47 years after it joined.[23]
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